On Polar Bears and Misconceptions
by MaxPower
A post about the polar bear to assuage some of our younger readers:
1. The polar bear population is healthy at 20,000 - 25,000 bears, up from 5,000 - 10,000 bears in the 1960s.
2. The US investigation on classifying the polar bear as "endangered" has been delayed as it is still reviewing technical data. However a US Senate report effectively debunks predicitions of polar bears going extinct by the end of the 21 century.
3. Polar bears do not live on ice flows year-round, they live on land during the summer and congregate to go out on the ice to hunt during the winter (and give Churchill Manitoba a bunch of tourist dollars every fall as they meet right outside town).
4. People who live in Churchill and who see more polar bears than anyone are saying things like "Contrary to several media reports, there has never been a study showing a significant change in freeze-up of Hudson Bay. The biggest problem with a late freeze-up is an increase in polar bear activity near the community of Churchill." from this blog.
5. The premise that the polar bears will die off if the earth warms directly contradicts both present and historical evidence including the discovery of a polar bear jaw which was 110,000 - 130,000 years old. That is important because at that time the earth was significantly warmer than currently with essentially no ice at the north pole. ""This is telling us that despite the ongoing warming in the Arctic today, maybe we don't have to be quite so worried about the polar bear. That would be very encouraging."
6. The models used by environmental groups forecasting the decline of polar bear numbers violate between 72% and 90% of the scientifically and statistically accepted forecasting methodologies. Internationally known forecasting pioneer Dr. Armstrong, along with his colleague, forecasting expert Dr. Green co-authored a January 27, 2008 paper with Harvard astrophysicist Dr. Soon which found that polar bear extinction predictions violate "scientific forecasting procedures." The study analyzed the methodology behind key polar bear population prediction and found that one of the two key reports in support of listing the bears had "extrapolated nearly 100 years into the future on the basis of only five years data - and data for these years were of doubtful validity."